The international press is currently obsessed with the theater. They are tracking the 36 Nigerian officers headed to court-martial for the alleged 2025 coup attempt like it is a standard legal proceeding. It is not. To view this through the lens of "rule of law" or "military discipline" is to fundamentally misunderstand how power operates in Abuja. This is not a trial. It is a purge masquerading as a judicial process, and the "lazy consensus" that this stabilizes the West African giant is a dangerous fantasy.
The Myth of the Fragile Democracy
Most analysts will tell you that these trials prove Nigeria’s democratic institutions are "holding the line." They claim that by bringing 36 high-ranking officers to a public forum, the government is signaling that the era of the khaki is over.
They are wrong.
The reality is that Nigeria is currently governed by a hybrid elite where the line between the military and the political class is a smudge at best. When the state arrests 36 officers, it isn't protecting democracy. It is managing internal competition. In the history of Nigerian military jurisprudence, court-martials have rarely been about the evidence of a plot and almost always about the effectiveness of a faction.
If you look at the 1985 Vatsa conspiracy or the 1995 "phantom coup" under Abacha, the pattern is identical. You identify a pocket of dissent—usually officers who are competent enough to be dangerous but outside the patronage network—and you wrap them in the flag to execute a removal.
Why 36 is the Magic Number
The sheer volume of the accused should be your first red flag. Military coups, by their nature, require tight-knit, secretive cells. You do not organize a successful overthrow with 36 distinct personalities in a room; that’s a town hall meeting, not a putsch.
When a government rounds up three dozen officers, they aren't catching a cell. They are clearing a generational block. This is a structural reshuffling. By removing 36 mid-to-senior level officers, the administration creates a vacuum. Who fills that vacuum? Loyalists. It is a promotion scheme written in the language of treason.
The Logistics of the Lie
- Intelligence Failure or Theater? If the Nigerian intelligence services were actually efficient enough to monitor 36 different officers in a coordinated plot, the insurgency in the Northeast would have been solved a decade ago.
- The Weaponization of "Attempted": In Nigerian political history, an "attempted" coup is often just a conversation that someone recorded.
- The Closed-Door Fallacy: Court-martials are notoriously opaque. We are told there is evidence, but we are never shown the chain of custody.
The Regional Contagion Excuse
The prevailing narrative suggests that Nigeria is "responding" to the wave of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The "Peoples Also Ask" sections of major news outlets are filled with questions like: Is Nigeria the next domino to fall?
This question is flawed because it assumes Nigeria is a standard West African state. Nigeria is an oil-backed oligarchy with a military that owns the economy. In Bamako, the military takes over because the state has failed. In Abuja, the military is the state. They don't need to seize the radio station when they already own the boardrooms.
This trial is a signal to the ECOWAS neighbors, but not the signal you think. It isn't a "we are different" message. It is a "we have our house under control" message to foreign investors who are currently pulling capital out of the Naira at record speeds.
The Economic Ghost in the Courtroom
Let’s talk about the data that actually matters. You cannot separate a coup trial from the 2025 inflation rate or the removal of fuel subsidies.
When the cost of living spikes, the junior rank-and-file get restless. They are the ones feeling the pinch. The senior officers, however, are insulated by "security votes"—unaccountable buckets of cash used for whatever the commander sees fit.
The 36 officers on trial are the scapegoats for a restless barracks. By making an example of them, the top brass is telling the lower ranks: "Look, we are cleaning house. Your problems are caused by these traitors, not by our corruption."
A Thought Experiment in Stability
Imagine a scenario where these 36 officers are acquitted. What happens? The government collapses within 48 hours. The mere act of an acquittal would signal that the Commander-in-Chief has lost his grip on the military judiciary.
Therefore, the verdict is already written. The "trial" is just the printing process.
The Institutional Scar Tissue
I have seen this play out in corporate restructuring and state-level politics alike: when you use the legal system to settle a grudge, you destroy the legal system's future utility.
Every time Nigeria holds a mass court-martial, it deepens the "ethnicization" of the officer corps. If 20 of those 36 officers happen to be from one specific region—which is frequently the case in these purges—you aren't stopping a coup. You are planting the seeds for the next one. You are telling an entire segment of the armed forces that they have no future in the current hierarchy.
Stop Asking if the Coup was Real
The question everyone keeps asking is: Did they actually try to do it?
It’s the wrong question. In a high-stakes autocracy, "intent" is whatever the person with the loudest microphone says it is. The real question is: Who benefits from these seats being empty?
The answer is always the same: the faction that currently holds the keys to the Central Bank.
Nigeria’s military trials are not a sign of a maturing democracy. They are a sign of a desperate regime using the only tool it has left to keep its own generals in line. Fear is the only currency that hasn't devalued in Nigeria this year.
This isn't about protecting the constitution. It's about protecting the contract. If you’re waiting for "justice" to emerge from this court-martial, you’re watching the wrong show.
Watch the promotions that follow the convictions. That is where the real story is hidden.
Don't look at the men in the dock. Look at the men who put them there.
