The UK hasn't seen the "R-word" on the evening news since the 1970s, but that streak might be about to end. While Keir Starmer spent his Monday meeting families to talk about the cost of living, a much grimmer warning was coming from the man who once ran BP. Lord Browne, the industry titan who led the oil giant for over a decade, isn't known for being a doomsayer. So when he tells the Prime Minister that the country needs to prepare for fuel rationing because of the war with Iran, it’s time to pay attention.
The math is simple and terrifying. We're nine days into a conflict that has essentially paralyzed the world's most important energy artery. If you've ever looked at a map of the Middle East, you've seen the tiny gap between Iran and Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) moves through that pinch point. Right now, thanks to Iranian threats and the fallout from the US-Israeli strikes, traffic there has slowed to a crawl.
The math of a dry pump
It's easy to think that because we have wind farms in the North Sea and nuclear plants in Somerset, we're safe. We aren't. While the UK only gets about 0.7% of its direct oil and gas from its own remaining North Sea fields, we're part of a global market. When the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, it doesn't just affect the tankers headed for Portsmouth; it affects the price of every barrel of oil on the planet.
Oil has already smashed past the $100 mark for the first time since the early days of the Ukraine invasion. If the Strait stays blocked, analysts are whispering about $150 or even $200. At that point, it’s not just about the price—it’s about whether there’s enough physical fuel to go around. Lord Browne's logic is that the government can't just cross its fingers and hope for de-escalation. Starmer needs a plan for what happens if the tankers simply stop arriving.
Why Starmer is in a corner
Keir Starmer is currently walking a diplomatic tightrope that looks more like a razor wire. On one side, he's trying to maintain the "special relationship" with a very aggressive Donald Trump, who has been publicly blasting the UK for not jumping into the war earlier. Trump’s Truth Social posts—calling anyone who disagrees an "ONLY FOOL"—haven't made the Prime Minister’s job any easier.
On the other side, Starmer knows that a full-scale energy crisis would bury his domestic agenda. He’s already admitted that the longer this conflict drags on, the more likely the "impact on our economy" becomes. He’s talking to the Bank of England every day. The energy price cap might protect your home heating bill until July, but it does absolutely nothing for the price of diesel at the BP garage down the road or the cost of shipping food to your local Tesco.
The reality of rationing in 2026
Rationing wouldn't look like it did in the 40s with little paper books. In 2026, it would be digital and brutal. We'd likely see "essential users only" signs at petrol stations—prioritizing ambulances, food delivery trucks, and police. For everyone else, it might mean a hard cap on how many liters you can buy per week, tracked via your number plate or a government app.
Lord Browne’s intervention is specifically aimed at getting the government to stop "monitoring" and start "mitigating." He’s been critical of the slow pace of the green transition, but even he acknowledges that in a war crisis, you can't build a wind farm fast enough to fill a gas tank. We're stuck with the infrastructure we have, and that infrastructure is currently gasping for air.
What happens if the Strait stays shut
The G7 finance ministers are already meeting virtually to discuss a coordinated release of oil from strategic reserves. It's a "break glass in case of emergency" move. But reserves are finite. They buy you weeks, not months.
If Iran continues to target energy infrastructure—as they have already done with attacks on Qatari LNG facilities—the "supply crunch" becomes a "supply collapse." Here is what you should actually expect if Lord Browne is right:
- Fuel prices jumping 30% in a single week: Gas stations will change their signs multiple times a day.
- Interest rate cuts being cancelled: The Bank of England can’t lower rates if inflation is being spiked by energy costs.
- The return of the "Work from Home" mandate: Not because of a virus, but because commuting becomes a luxury most people can't afford.
Honestly, the government’s current stance is a bit of a "wait and see" gamble. They’re relying on the US to "clear the threat" quickly, as Trump promised. But as Lord Browne pointed out, US action in Iran is likely to be "destabilising for a generation." There is no such thing as a quick war in the Middle East.
If you’re waiting for the government to tell you to stock up, they won’t—they don't want to trigger a panic. But when the former head of one of the world's largest oil companies starts using the word "rationing," the smart move is to assume the era of cheap, easy energy is on a temporary hiatus. Keep your tank half-full and maybe start looking at that bus timetable.
Check your local council’s emergency preparedness page. They're the ones who will actually be managing the logistics if the pumps go dry. Don't wait for the national alert to hit your phone; by then, the queues will already be three miles long.
