Israel’s reported elimination of Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani marks the most aggressive phase of a decapitation strategy designed to leave the Iranian state not just leaderless, but paralyzed. On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces announced that Larijani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and Soleimani, the commander of the Basij paramilitary force, were killed in precise overnight strikes near Tehran. This operation follows the February 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, effectively wiping out the veteran political-security bridge that has held the Islamic Republic together for four decades.
Larijani was not a typical military target. He was the ultimate regime insider, a philosopher-politician from a powerful dynasty who had spent weeks attempting to navigate the country through its most existential crisis since the 1979 Revolution. While Mojtaba Khamenei was named successor, Larijani was the de facto administrator of a crumbling state. His death removes the primary intellectual and diplomatic engine of the regime. Simultaneously, the loss of Gholamreza Soleimani—the man responsible for the internal "shock troops" that crushed the 2019 and 2022 protests—strikes at the heart of the regime's domestic survival mechanism.
The End of the Kennedy Dynasty of Iran
Ali Larijani represented the "refined" face of Iranian hardline conservatism. To understand his value to the state, one must look at the vacuum he leaves behind. He was one of five brothers who dominated the Iranian judiciary, parliament, and diplomatic corps for decades. While the West often viewed him as a pragmatic conservative due to his interest in German philosophy and his role in nuclear negotiations, his record was one of absolute loyalty to the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist).
In the 1990s, Larijani controlled the state media apparatus, using it to silence dissent and enforce strict ideological conformity. Later, as Speaker of the Parliament, he mastered the art of balancing the interests of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with those of the traditional clerical establishment. In the weeks following the February strikes on Khamenei’s compound, Larijani was the only figure with enough gravitas to communicate with both the military and the remaining loyalist bureaucracy. Without him, the regime loses its ability to coordinate a coherent political response to the ongoing invasion.
Breaking the Iron Fist of the Basij
While Larijani was the brain, Gholamreza Soleimani was the fist. As the head of the Basij, he commanded a volunteer militia of millions that served as the regime’s eyes and ears in every neighborhood and mosque. The Basij are the front line of domestic repression. They are the ones who ride motorcycles into crowds of students and use birdshot and batons to restore "order."
The IDF’s decision to target Soleimani in a "combat tent" near Tehran suggest that the Basij leadership had moved to mobile, decentralized command posts to avoid the fate of the IRGC generals killed in June 2025. By eliminating Soleimani, Israel is betting that the Basij will fracture into localized gangs without a central command. This creates a window for the domestic opposition, which has been simmering since the "12-Day War" last year, to take control of the streets without the fear of a coordinated, lethal crackdown.
Decapitation versus Balkanization
The current Israeli strategy is high-risk. By systematically removing every senior official capable of signing a surrender or maintaining basic order, Jerusalem and Washington are inviting a period of total Iranian anarchy. There is a growing debate within strategic circles regarding whether a "balkanized" Iran—split into ethnic enclaves of Persians, Azeris, Kurds, and Balochis—is actually safer for the region.
Some analysts argue that a fragmented Iran would birth a "constellation of nuclear warlords," where localized IRGC commanders seize control of hardened missile sites and enrichment facilities like Fordow. Without a central figure like Larijani to negotiate with, the West may find itself playing a global game of "whack-a-mole" with dozens of independent, radicalized factions.
The Missing Heir and the Shadow of Mojtaba
The most glaring unknown in the current conflict is the status of Mojtaba Khamenei. Appointed supreme leader in the chaos of early March, he has not been seen in public. Israeli intelligence suspects he was wounded in the initial strikes. In his absence, Larijani had been the voice of the state, even engaging in a defiant social media exchange with President Trump just last week.
With Larijani gone, the "continuity of government" in Iran is effectively a fiction. The remaining IRGC commanders, such as the survivors of the Quds Force, are now operating in a total information vacuum. They are facing a military that possesses absolute air superiority and the ability to strike individual tents in the middle of a war zone.
The Strategic Miscalculation of Total Collapse
The elimination of Larijani and Soleimani marks the transition from a war against a regime to a war against a territory. When the head of the National Security Council is killed, the "state" ceases to function as a legal entity. This creates a vacuum that no amount of precision bombing can fill.
The immediate consequence will likely be seen at the Strait of Hormuz. Larijani had recently threatened to close the waterway "twenty times harder" if oil shipments were blocked. Without his hand on the lever of the security council, the decision to trigger a global energy crisis now rests with mid-level naval commanders who have nothing left to lose.
Israel’s "Momentum" plan has succeeded in lopping off the head of the octopus, but the tentacles remain armed, autonomous, and increasingly desperate. The next 72 hours will determine if the Iranian security apparatus collapses entirely or if the remaining loyalists transition into a decentralized insurgency that could haunt the region for a generation.
Monitor the movements of the 1st and 2nd IRGC brigades near the capital; their choice to either stand down or engage in urban defense will be the final indicator of whether the Islamic Republic still exists as a functioning military power.
